.webp){kind=small}
SpaceX is reportedly valued at over $350 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies in history. But what does that number actually mean? And more importantly, if you hold SpaceX equity, how does this valuation translate to what your stock is worth?
At Axon Capital Management, we provide integrated wealth planning for SpaceX employees and stockholders. We help navigate stock compensation planning (RSUs, ISOs, NSOs, ESPPs), tax strategy and multi-year modeling, diversification and risk management, and comprehensive wealth planning that ensures your equity decisions support your bigger financial picture.
Let's break down how to calculate what private company shares might be worth.
Public companies are valued continuously through market trading. Apple's market cap changes by the second as millions of shares trade hands. The formula is straightforward:
Market Cap = Share Price × Total Shares Outstanding
If Apple has 15.5 billion shares trading at $240, its market cap is $3.72 trillion. Simple, transparent, and updated in real-time.
Private companies like SpaceX don't have this luxury—or scrutiny. Valuations are established during funding rounds when the company raises new capital from investors.
Here's how it works:
The value of your SpaceX equity is dependent on:
1) How many shares you own (or what percentage of the company you hold)
2) What SpaceX is currently valued at (and what it was valued at when you received your stock)
Let's say you received SpaceX equity in 2020 when the company was valued at approximately $46 billion. You were granted $50,000 worth of shares.
Your ownership percentage stays relatively constant (barring dilution from new funding rounds), but the value of the entire company can change dramatically. As SpaceX's valuation increases, so does the value of your shares.
Following SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI, investors should understand how the transaction affects ownership and equity value. Read the full analysis here.
Let's walk through what those shares granted in 2020 would be worth at various market caps. We'll assume the share count has remained relatively stable (though in reality, there's typically some dilution over time).
This guide provides hypothetical examples for educational purposes only and is not personalized financial advice or an investment recommendation regarding SpaceX. Private company equity involves significant risks. Actual results will vary based on share class (common vs. preferred), vesting, dilution, company policies, secondary-market pricing, and tax considerations.
There's an important caveat to all these calculations: dilution. When SpaceX raises new funding rounds, they typically issue new shares. This means the total share count increases, which can reduce your percentage ownership of the company.
For example, if SpaceX had 3.5 billion shares when you received your grant, but then issued another 500 million shares in a new funding round, the total would increase to 4 billion shares. Your shares would now represent a smaller percentage of the company.
However, dilution isn't necessarily bad. If the new funding round values the company significantly higher, your shares can still increase in value even as your percentage ownership decreases. This is called "getting diluted up."
Imagine you own 0.001% of a $100 billion company ($1 million worth). After a new funding round, you might own only 0.0009% of the company - but if that company is now valued at $200 billion, your stake is worth $1.8 million. You own a smaller slice of a much larger pie.
It’s easy to treat SpaceX’s headline valuation as a precise statement of what the company - and your equity - is worth, but private company valuations are inherently opaque. Unlike public markets, these figures are set during negotiated funding rounds that depend heavily on timing, investor demand, and deal structure, not just underlying business fundamentals.
A valuation represents what a specific group of investors agreed to pay at a specific point in time, not a continuously tested market price. On top of that, terms such as liquidation preferences, anti-dilution protections, and other investor rights can result in different share classes having very different economic outcomes, meaning the implied value of common stock may diverge meaningfully from the headline number.
Unlike public stock, you can't simply sell your SpaceX shares on a whim. Private company equity is illiquid, meaning it's not easily converted to cash. However, SpaceX does periodically offer tender opportunities where employees and early investors can sell their shares back to the company or to new investors at the current valuation.
These tender offers are your primary opportunity to realize gains without waiting for an IPO or acquisition. The price offered is typically based on the most recent funding round valuation, though it can sometimes be at a slight discount or premium depending on demand.
SpaceX's valuation isn't arbitrary. Investors base their pricing decisions on several key factors:
SpaceX generated an estimated $9 billion in revenue in 2024, with projections approaching $15-20 billion annually in coming years. This revenue comes from:
The revenue growth trajectory matters enormously. A company growing 30-40% annually commands higher valuations than one growing 5-10%.
While exact figures aren't public, reports suggest SpaceX has achieved profitability or near-profitability in recent years, particularly from Starlink operations. Investors value profitable businesses higher than those burning cash.
Cash flow is especially important. If SpaceX generates substantial free cash flow, it becomes less dependent on outside funding and can self-finance growth—making equity more valuable.
SpaceX doesn't just participate in the space industry—it dominates it:
Dominant market positions justify premium valuations.
Investors don't just value what SpaceX does today—they value what it could do:
SpaceX's proprietary technology—Raptor engines, reusability systems, Starlink phased-array antennas, autonomous docking systems—creates barriers to entry and sustainable competitive advantages. Technology moats justify higher valuations.
Investors benchmark SpaceX against both public and private comparables:
SpaceX's unique position—high growth, capital intensive, dual revenue streams—makes direct comparisons challenging, but investors use these benchmarks to sanity-check valuations.
If you hold SpaceX equity, here are some practical considerations:
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Paper gains are just that - paper. Until you can actually sell your shares, they're not cash in your pocket.
Understand your vesting schedule. Most equity grants vest over time, often four years with a one-year cliff. Make sure you know when your shares actually become yours.
Watch for tender offers. These are your opportunities to gain liquidity. SpaceX has historically offered these every six months to a year, though there's no guarantee they'll continue at that pace.
Consider your concentration risk. If a huge percentage of your net worth is tied up in a single private company, that's a significant risk - even for a company as promising as SpaceX.
Tax implications matter. When you exercise options or sell shares, there are tax consequences. Consult with a tax professional who understands equity compensation.
The value of your SpaceX equity is directly tied to the company's valuation trajectory. Those shares granted at a $46 billion valuation could be worth anywhere from nothing to several million, depending on where SpaceX's story goes from here.
The calculations above show the mathematical relationship between company valuation and your equity value, but remember: these are just numbers on paper until you have the opportunity to sell.
If you're a SpaceX employee or stockholder looking for personalized guidance on your equity compensation, tax planning, and long-term wealth strategy, Axon Capital Management can help. Our team specializes in working with private company equity holders to navigate the complexities of stock options, diversification, and preparing for liquidity events. Fill out the form below to schedule a consultation and discover how integrated wealth planning can help you make the most of your SpaceX equity.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. All valuations, market capitalizations, and dollar examples are hypothetical and used solely to illustrate how private company equity may be valued under different scenarios. SpaceX is a privately held company with no public market for its shares, and any references to potential valuations or liquidity events are speculative and not guarantees of future outcomes.
Article written by Brady Lochte, founder of Axon Capital Management and a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor. Brady is committed to providing clear, transparent financial guidance that helps people navigate retirement, investing, and long-term planning with confidence.
Please submit the form with any questions or comments and I'll be in touch shortly.
If you'd rather not wait, you can also book a time directly on my calendar using the link below:
Schedule a call
